Overview of Nigeria’s GDP Performance in Q2 2024

In the second quarter of 2024, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) recorded a real growth rate of 3.19% year-on-year, reflecting a continued recovery in economic activity when compared to the 2.98% growth rate in Q1 2024 and 2.51% in Q2 2023. This positive trajectory points to growing resilience in the economy despite ongoing structural challenges such as inflationary pressures, exchange rate volatility, and energy supply concerns.

In nominal terms, the GDP stood at ?60.93 trillion, representing a 16.94% increase over the ?52.10 trillion recorded in Q2 2023. The significant year-on-year growth in nominal GDP underscores an expansion across both oil and non-oil sectors, with much of the real growth momentum driven by non-oil activities, especially in services and industry.

Sectoral Contributions and MSME-Intensive Industries

The Services sector was the dominant contributor to GDP in Q2 2024, accounting for 58.76% of aggregate output and registering a growth rate of 3.79%. This sector includes telecommunications, financial services, real estate, and trade – all of which are heavily populated by Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs).

The Industry sector experienced a notable recovery, growing by 3.53% in real terms, a marked turnaround from the -1.94% contraction recorded in Q2 2023. This resurgence was largely attributable to improved performance in manufacturing and utilities. Notably, the Manufacturing sub-sector, which includes MSME-driven clusters such as food processing and agro-allied industries, contributed significantly to this industrial recovery.

The Agriculture sector, though modest in its growth, expanded by 1.41%, driven by Crop Production, which is largely powered by smallholder and medium-scale farmers – a demographic that constitutes a major portion of Nigeria's informal and MSME ecosystem.

MSME Contribution to GDP and Economic Significance

Although the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) do not publish specific quarterly disaggregated figures on MSME contributions to GDP, existing data and sectoral trends provide strong evidence of their extensive role in driving non-oil GDP growth.

Based on previous NBS collaborative studies, such as the SMEDAN-NBS 2021 MSME Report, MSMEs account for approximately 49.78% of Nigeria’s GDP, over 86.3% of total employment, and around 96% of all businesses in the country. These figures suggest that MSMEs play a foundational role in shaping economic outcomes, particularly in non-oil sectors such as trade, agriculture, ICT, and light manufacturing.

Given that the non-oil sector contributed 94.30% to the real GDP in Q2 2024, and considering that MSMEs are predominantly active in these sectors, it is reasonable to infer that MSMEs remain key engines of national economic growth, employment generation, and innovation.

Implications for Policy and Sustainable Development

The continued expansion of GDP in Q2 2024, led by MSME-intensive sectors, highlights the importance of a targeted support framework for small businesses. Initiatives such as improved access to finance, simplified regulatory compliance, digital transformation, and access to export markets will be vital in sustaining the momentum.

Furthermore, given Nigeria’s push towards inclusive growth and sustainable development, strengthening MSME capacity aligns directly with national goals under the Economic Sustainability Plan (ESP) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly Goals 1 (No Poverty), 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), and 9 (Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure).